Virginia Primary Recap

By Danny Restivo (Posted 6/14/17)

Former Republican Party Chairman Ed Gillespie and Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam clinched their respective party’s nominations for Virginia’s 2017 gubernatorial race:

  • Northam defeated his challenger from the left, former Congressman Tom Perriello with 57 percent of the vote, while Perriello grabbed 44 percent (303,846 to 239,505).
  • Gillespie narrowly defeated Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart. He had 43.7 percent compared to Stewart’s 42.5 percent, while state Senator Jack Wagner came in a distant third with just under 14 percent.

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Stewart did not concede defeat on election night. His performance shocked many pollsters who predicted a 20-point Gillespie victory. However, a low turnout among Republican voters—540,000 Democrats compared to 360,000 Republican—and a solid turnout among a galvanized base gave Stewart a much-needed boost.

In the Lieutenant governor’s race:

  • Former assistant U.S. Attorney Justin Fairfax defeated Gene Rossi, a retired federal prosecutor and Susan Platt, a former Democratic operative and lobbyist to win the Democratic nomination. Fairfax grabbed nearly 58 percent of the vote while Platt and Rossi each had 30 and 12 percent, respectively.
  • On the Republican side, State Senator Jill Vogel earned 43 percent of Virginia GOP voters, while her closest competition, State Senator Bryan Reeves, garnered 40 percent.

In Virginia, the Lieutenant governor is a part-time position that includes presides over the state senate and breaking tied votes.

General Election- Preview

The 2017 Virginia general election will be held on November 7 and following this very contested primary, Democrats appear to be starting out with the advantage. A Northam-vs.-Gillespie general election may look surprisingly similar to other states. Early analysis of turnout suggests that the Virginia primary looked similar to the NJ primary held last week; Democrats had turnout and enthusiasm on their side with approximately 540,000 votes to the GOP’s 366,000 votes.

Analysts are not on yet betting on Gillespie and are convinced that Virginia may no longer be a “purple” state. Republicans have gone 1-9 in major VA statewide races since 2004, and if turnout in this primary shows anything, the Democrats may out perform once again. It is also worth noting that while Gillespie eked out a a win, his win was not without a major fight between the establishment and outsider wings of the republican party.  With five months to go until the general election, both Gillespie and Northam have their work cut out for them in what will no doubt be an indicator of things to come in 2018.

For a complete breakdown of the Virginia gubernatorial candidates, please read our Primary Preview published on June 2.

Democratic Primary- Recap

Ralph Northam– As Lieutenant Governor to Governor Terry McAuliffe, Northam usurped the role of heir apparent until Perriello announced his candidacy in January. Many of dubbed the race as an extension of the Clinton-Sanders fight in Virginian. Northam has received endorsements from state party leaders like McAuliffe, and Democratic Senators Tim Kaine and Mark Warner.  Additionally, every Democrat in the state legislature has backed Northam and every Democratic congressman except one has supported him. While his opponent rides a wave of anti-Trump sentiment, Northam remains a centrist Democrat who admitted supporting George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. However, the former U.S. Army doctor has shuffled further to the left since becoming state senator in a rural district in 2007. As a Virginia legislator and a lieutenant governor, he helped ban smoking in restaurants, worked with victim’s families of the Virginia Tech shooting to curb gun control and helped legalize cannabis oils. As Governor, Northam said he wants to offer tax credits to businesses with paid family leave. He also wants to revise the state’s grocery tax, which he says would cost $67 million. He’s also suggested decriminalizing possession of marijuana. During a debate with Perriello, Northam touted his relationship with Republican legislator saying “I look forward to the relationships I already have in Richmond and continuing that process in the upcoming four years.” As of March 31, Northam had $3.3 million in campaign funds.

Tom Perriello- The former congressman was elected to represent Virginia’s fifth congressional district in 2008. However, his support for the Affordable Care Act cost him his seat two years later. Following his term, he worked for a progressive nonprofit before heading to the State Department in 2014. After announcing his candidacy in January, he quickly aligned himself with the party’s liberal messaging. Perriello has positioned himself as a policy-oriented progressive who supports free community college, paid family leave and universal pre-kindergarten. He’s also railed against a gas pipeline through Virginia. Meanwhile, Perriello has received outside support from Senator Elizabeth Warren (Mass-D), Senator Bernie Sanders (Vt-I) and several Obama aides. Their support comes in a state where Hillary Clinton won nearly two-thirds of the Democratic electorate against Sanders in 2016. Furthermore, more than half of Perriello’s $2.2 million in campaign funding has come from massive donors outside the state, including contributions from George Soros. While Perriello has championed progressive causes, his voting record on abortion issues and gun rights while in congress has come under fire.

Republican Primary- Recap

Ed Gillespie– The former counselor to George W. Bush and Chairman of the Republican National Committee ran against Senator Mark Warner in 2014. Gillespie’s performance surprised many (he lost by less than one percentage point). Prior to his run, he was a lobbyist in Washington, D.C., and provide government affairs service for Tyson Foods. His critics from the right have said he helped push legislation friendly to illegal immigrants. As part of his platform, Gillespie aims to cut income taxes by 10 percent over three years, improve government efficiency and ethics oversight, ban personal use of campaign funds, while strengthening second amendment rights and abortion restrictions. According to a May poll by Washington Post-Schar School, Gillespie has strong support among all registered Republicans. With $3.3 million in campaign funding, the former RNC chair has 38 percent support while a quarter remain undecided.

Corey Stewart- Known more for his pro-Confederate antics rather than his policy chops, the chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors promises to crack down on illegal immigration while protecting Virginia’s Confederate symbols. As Chair of President Trump’s Campaign in Virginia, Stewart was fired for staging a protest at the State’s GOP headquarters. The anti-establishment Stewart wants to phase out the income tax, outlaw abortion without exception and slash state spending. The firebrand Stewart has attacked Gillespie repeatedly for receiving more than $1 million to lobby for Tyson Foods when allegations of smuggling illegal immigrants to arose. With slightly more than $400,000 in campaign funding, Stewart has 18 percent support among Virginia Republicans.

Jack Wagner- Originally elected to the Virginia House in 1992, then to the State Senate in 2000, Wagner has a significant level of experience in Virginia politics. As a Virginia Beach resident representing the 7th district, he sits on the Commerce and Labor, General Laws and Technology, Rehabilitation and Social Services, and Transportation committees. While Stewart and Gillespie want to cut state spending, Wagner maintains the budget is lean enough—citing a $1.2 billion shortfall in 2016. Wagner wants to increase the gasoline tax to subsidize infrastructure projects. He also wants to create accredited vocational programs in high schools that will support technical training for new jobs. Similar to his opponents, he opposes abortion in all instances except in the case of rape or if the mother’s life is endangered. With $178,000 in campaign funds, Wagner has 15 percent support among registered Republican voters.

 

 

2017 New Jersey Primary Election Recap

On June 6, 2017 New Jersey held its statewide primary.

While there were several legislative districts with contested seats, the most watched race both in NJ and the larger region was the Gubernatorial primary. The outcome of this race would decide which candidate would receive their respective party’s nomination to square off in November to succeed outgoing Governor Chris Christie. In addition to the Gubernatorial primary, several legislative seats were challenged. It has been referred to as one of the largest fields the state has seen in a dozen years, with far more contested seats than two years ago.

Gubernatorial Primary

Four Democrats and two Republicans sought their respective party’s nomination for 2016_lg_officialgovernor. A Quinnipiac University poll released in May 2017 showed Democrat Phil Murphy, former ambassador to Germany, and Republican Kim Guadagno, lieutenant governor, as clear favorites to succeed Chris Christie.philip_d-_murphy

Indeed, the election played out just as anticipated, with Ambassador Murphy (48.3%) and Lt. Governor Guadagno (46.8%) receiving their party’s nominations:

Republican Primary       Democratic Primary    
CANDIDATE VOTE PERCENT   CANDIDATE VOTE PERCENT
Kim Guadagno 112,899 46.80% Philip Murphy 240,279 48.30%
Jack Ciattarelli 75,018 31.1 Jim Johnson 109,086 21.9
Hirsh Singh 23,634 9.8 John Wisniewski 107,661 21.6
Joseph Rullo 15,714 6.5 Raymond Lesniak 24,092 4.8
Steven Rogers 14,085 5.8 William Brennan 11,122 2.2
Mark Zinna 5,127 1

Contested Legislative (Assembly and Senate) Races

In addition to the gubernatorial primary, nine Legislative Districts had contested Senate elections: the 7th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 17th, 24th, 35th, 37th and 40th; and fifteen Legislative Districts had contested Assembly races: the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 11th, 12th, 15th, 17th, 22nd, 24th, 26th, 31st, 37th and 40th.

All told, a total of 278 candidates were on the ballot for state Senate and Assembly seats, resulting in over 20 contested primaries in New Jersey’s 40 legislative districts. It has been referred to as one of the largest fields the state has seen in a dozen years, with far more contested seats than two years ago.

We have compiled a breakdown of select races as follows:

Senate:

LD-7: Assemblyman Troy Singleton ran uncontested in the Democratic primary for the district’s Senate seat, which is being vacated by retiring Republican Diane Allen. Singleton will face Riverside Committeeman Rob Prisco, who ran uncontested in the GOP primary.

LD-12: In the Republican primary for Senate in LD-12 incumbent Samuel Thompson with 60% of the vote defeated his long time rival and challenger, Art Haney, chairman of the Old Bridge Republican organization.

LD-13: In the Democratic primary for Senate in LD-12, Sean Byrnes defeated Joshua Leinsdorf with 93% of the vote. Byrnes will face Republican Assemblyman Declan O’Scanlon in the race to replace retiring Senator Joe Kryillos.

LD-14: In the Republican primary for Senate in LD-14, Ilena Schirmer defeated Bruce MacDonald with 81% of the vote.

LD-17: In the Democratic primary in LD-14, incumbent Senator Bob Smith defeated challenger William Irwin with 72% of the vote. Irwin, the President of the Piscataway school board and a progressive activist, unsuccessfully attempted to capitalize on momentum seen by other “outsider” candidates.

LD-24: In the Republican primary in LD-24, incumbent Senator Steven Oroho
successfully defended his seat against challenger William Haveden, receiving 75% of the vote. The district–among North Jersey’s most Conservative–saw the Gas Tax as a major issue in the race by the challenger. Fortunately for incumbent Oroho, this did not resonate with voters.

LD-35: In the Democratic primary for LD-35, Senator Nellie Pou handily defeated her challenger, Haytham Younes, with 95% of the vote. Senator Pou is currently the chair of the Senate Commerce Committee and serves on the Senate Higher Education and Judiciary committees.

LD-37: In the Republican primary for LD-37, Modesto Romero defeated Eric Fisher with 53% of the vote. Romero will go on to face Senator Loretta Weinberg in the General Election. Weinberg is incredibly popular in this heavily Democratic district.

LD-40: Both the Assembly and Senate primaries in LD 40 are considered some of the most interesting in the state. For the GOP senate primary, Kristin Corrado (62%) defeated Paul DiGaetano (30%) and Edward Buttimore (38%) to succeed retiring Senator Kevin O’Toole.

Assembly:

LD-1: The race for LD-1’s Assembly seats saw James Sauro and Robert Campbell defeat Brian McDowell in the GOP Primary. The race, which includes parts of Atlantic, Cape May, and Cumberland counties, including the city of Cape May, received statewide attention because of a cellphone video of a drunken McDowell making inappropriate comments towards a woman at a bar.

LD-2: In the Democratic Primary for LD-2, incumbent Assemblyman Vincent Mazzeo, and John Armato defeated a large field of four other candidates to receive their party’s nomination. Republican Assemblyman Chris A. Brown is running for retiring Senator Jim Whelan’s seat.

LD-3: The Democratic incumbents in LD-3, Assemblymen John Burzichelli and Adam Taliaferro both retained their seats with 46% of the vote against challenger John Kalnas.

LD-6: In South Jersey’s 6th Legislative District, incumbents Assemblywoman Pamela Lampitt and Assemblyman Lou Greenwald retained their seats with 44% and 43% of the vote, respectively. Both Lampitt and Greenwald defeated challenger Frederick Dande and will not face opposition in the fall.

LD-7: In the 7th Legislative District, incumbent Assemblyman Herb Conaway retained his seat, while Carol Murphy defeated Jennifer Chuang for the seat being vacated by Assemblyman Troy Singleton, who ran for Senate.

LD-11: In the 11th Legislative District, both Assemblywoman Joann Downey and Assemblyman Eric Houghtaling retained their seats.

LD-12: In the 12th Legislative District GOP primary, incumbent Assemblymen Ronald Dancer and Robert Clifton retained their seats against 3 challengers including Debbie Walker, Alex Robotin, and John Sheard.

LD-15: In the Democratic Primary in LD-15, Assemblywoman Elizabeth Muoio and Assemblyman Reed Gusciora retained their seats.

LD-17: In the Democratic Primary in LD-17 incumbent Assemblymen Joseph Egan and Joseph Danielsen both fended off progressive challengers Heather Fenyk and Ralph Johnson.

LD-22: In the Democratic Primary in LD-22, incumbent Assemblymen James Kennedy and Jerry Green both retained their seats.

LD-24: In the Democratic Primary in LD-24, Kate Matteson and Gina Trish received the party’s nomination. Matteson and Trish will face off against Republicans Assemblyman Parker Space, and newcomer Harold Wirths in the fall.

LD-26: In the Republican primary in LD-26, incumbents Assemblyman Jay Webber and Assemblywoman BettyLou DeCroce retained their nominations and will face off against Democratic challengers William Edge and Joseph Raich. In the GOP primary, Assemblywoman fought off challengers Hank Lyon and John Cesaro, both Morris County Freeholders, who criticized her for her support of the Gas Tax.

LD-31: In the Democratic primary for LD-31, incumbents Assemblywoman Angela McKnight and Assemblyman Nicholas Chiaravalloti retained their seats.

LD-37: For the Republican primary in LD-37, Gina Tessaro and Angela Hendricks received their party’s nomination for Assembly. They will face off against Assemblyman Gordon Johnson and Assemblywoman Valerie Huttle. 

LD-40: The Assembly primary for LD-40 was just as heated as the Senate primary. For the GOP, incumbent Assemblyman Kevin Rooney held on to his seat, along with former Wykoff mayor Christopher DePhillips. Rooney and DePhillips ran as a slate with Kristin Corrado, defeating former State Senator Norman Robertson and Joseph Bubba.

Brett Goldman, DMGS Manager of Special Projects, contributed to this report.

Capitol Commentary: The Week Ahead in Washington 6/5/17

Days after President Donald Trump postponed fulfilling a campaign promise to relocate the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, the Senate plans to commemorate the 50th anniversary of Israel’s control of a city that is holy to three religions. Today’s scheduled vote to celebrate Jerusalem’s reunification during the 1967 Six-Day War kicks off a busy Senate week that is also slated to include the first public testimony by ex-FBI Director James Comey since Trump fired him on May 9. As lawmakers return from a week-long recess, the House has set votes on legislation to repeal the 2010 Dodd-Frank bank-regulation law that Congress enacted in response to the 2008 financial crisis.

Russia Probe

The congressional investigations of Russian meddling in last year’s presidential election and the Kremlin’s possible collusion with Trump’s campaign are accelerating with a new round of subpoenas and Comey’s scheduled testimony Thursday before the Senate Intelligence Committee. Lawmakers want to learn more about whether Trump pushed Comey to drop the FBI’s probe of former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn’s financial ties to Russia and Turkey. Look to see if a White House legal review results in the president invoking executive privilege to prevent Comey from testifying about his conversations with Trump. Comey’s dismissal led to former FBI Director Robert Mueller III’s appointment as special counsel overseeing the Russia investigation.

Swipe Fees

Intense lobbying by retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. against a provision in the Dodd-Frank rollback that would lift the cap on fees that banks charge merchants for debit-card purchases prompted updated language that preserves the status quo. The change, made in updated bill text released last week, will enable Republicans to avoid a politically charged vote on legislation that has a dim future in the Senate, where Democrats have the votes to block it.

Surveillance Law

The terrorist attacks in London lend new urgency to a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing set for Wednesday on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which authorizes the National Security Agency to eavesdrop on suspected spies and terrorists. A key provision authorizing the bulk electronic surveillance of foreign persons overseas without a warrant expires at year’s end and supporters are bracing for a legislative fight.

NSA Director Mike Rogers and Dan Coats, the former Indiana senator who Trump appointed director of national intelligence, are expected to press lawmakers to renew the provision, known as Section 702, without changes.

Unified Jerusalem

Today’s scheduled vote on the Jerusalem resolution, S. Res. 176, perpetuates debates over moving the U.S. Embassy and the status of the holy city. Israel’s complete control of Jerusalem is not recognized by other nations because Jerusalem was envisioned as an international city under the 1947 United Nations resolution that partitioned Palestine and set the borders of the new Jewish nation that was founded in 1948. Before 1967, Israel held West Jerusalem, and Jordan controlled the Old City. Jews were barred from visiting the Western Wall of the Temple Mount, sacred ground known to Muslims as the Noble Sanctuary. Christians venerate the nearby Church of the Holy Sepulchre as the location of Christ’s tomb.

The Senate vote comes days after Trump, like his predecessors, signed a six-month waiver to continue delaying the requirement of a 1995 law mandating the embassy move. The White House said in a statement that Trump still planned to move the embassy but wanted to preserve the status quo to facilitate a possible settlement between Israelis and Palestinians.

ACA Repeal

Senate Republicans renew their efforts to find consensus on repealing Obamacare. House-passed legislation, H.R. 1628, has little support in the Senate, where Republicans are divided over how to proceed. Republican Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina told a home-state television station that a deal this year is “unlikely.” Watch for Democrats to question Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price about his administration of the Affordable Care Act when he appears Thursday before the Senate Finance and the House Ways and Means committees to explain his agency’s spending priorities for the 2018 fiscal year. Price leads a parade of Cabinet secretaries making trips to Capitol Hill to discuss Trump’s proposed budget.

Special Election

Voters in California’s 34th District go to the polls tomorrow to pick a successor to former Representative Xavier Becerra, who was appointed state attorney general in January. State assemblyman Jimmy Gomez, preferred by House Democratic leaders to win the Los Angeles seat, faces lawyer Robert Lee Ahn, a former city planning commissioner. It is the only vacant seat being defended by Democrats after Trump appointed Price, a former Georgia representative, and three other House members to top positions in his administration.

John Zang Contributed to This Report

Primary Preview: New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial Elections

By- Danny Restivo (Posted 6/2/17)

New Jersey- June 6th, 2017

On June 6, New Jersey Democrats and Republicans will cast a vote for their respective party’s gubernatorial nominee in the 2017 election. In May, a Quinnipiac University poll showed Democrat Phil Murphy, former ambassador to Germany, and Republican Kim Guadagno, lieutenant governor, as clear favorites to succeed Chris Christie. While Guadagno and Murphy have taken the lead, 57 percent of Garden State voters remain undecided, according to Quinnipiac. A Stockton University survey released on May 25 showed 34 percent of Democratic voters remain undecided, while 31 percent of Republican voters had not supported a candidate. Here are the top candidates seeking their party’s nomination.

Democrats

philip_d-_murphy Phil Murphy is the former ambassador to Germany under President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013. Prior to his ambassadorship, the Boston-born and Harvard-educated Murphy worked at Goldman Sachs and headed the Frankfurt office from 1993 to 1997. In 2014 he served as a principal of Murphy Endeavors, a business management consulting company located in Red Bank. Meanwhile, he started his own progressive nonprofit advocacy group. Murphy has $15 million of his own funds to help fuel statewide campaign efforts, tripling his competitor’s. His progressive campaign message includes the establishment of a public bank of New Jersey to help spur investment in small business and infrastructure. As the favorite to win the party nominee, Murphy has 21 county endorsements, near unanimous support from Unions, and a campaign staff that includes a number of high level political operatives. According to Quinnipiac, Murphy has drawn 26 percent of Democratic voters, while Stockton has placed his total at 34 percent.

Jim Johnson- Although he’s polled at 7 percent, according to Quinnipiac (10 percent jimjohnsonaccording to Stockton), Johnson may serve as the biggest threat to Murphy’s candidacy. He’s centered his campaign rhetoric on ethics reform, while promoting himself as an outsider in New Jersey’s political system. Johnson served as a Treasury Department Official in Bill Clinton’s Presidential administration, before practicing corporate law in New York City. During that time, he also served as Chairman of the Brennan Center of Justice at New York University, where he worked on Civil Rights, law enforcement and gun control issues. Johnson has pledged to maintain benefits and pension plans for government employees and retirees. Additionally, he’s also pushing a $15 minimum wage hike (Murphy has also signaled support for a $15 minimum wage), while vowing to reduce residential property taxes and increasing affordable housing. Johnson also advocates free community college tuition for students who come from families with incomes under $90,000. Under Johnson, tuition assistance grants for college would expand.

John Wisniewski As a 19-year assemblyman from Middlesex County, and Chairman of wisniewskithe Bernie Sanders Campaign in New Jersey, Wisniewski is the most progressive candidate in the 2017 Democratic primary. Unfortunately, Hillary Clinton won New Jersey Democrats by a 2-to-1 ratio.  Like Sanders, he’s advocated for tuition free college, as well as a single-payer healthcare system. Wisniewski was also a driving force behind the investigation of the Bridgegate Scandal. As the Chair of the Transportation and Independent Authorities Committee since 2002, Wisniewski has championed funding for a number of statewide transportation projects, sponsored legislation for minimum wage increases, property tax relief and helped to pass the Garden State Manufacturing Act. According to Quinnipiac, Wisniewski has received 5 percent support among Democratic supporters.

raymond_j-_lesniakRaymond Lesniak- . Senator Lesniak is one of the longest-serving politicians in New Jersey history with 39 years of experience. Lesniak has been a fierce advocate of progressive causes like the abolition of the death penalty, animal rights, marriage equality, environmental initiatives and the expansion of drug treatment centers. His path to the Governor’s seat remains the most difficult with small funding and a miniscule staff. Moreover, his announcement to run came after he said he wasn’t running.  The Elizabeth native currently has 4 percent support among Democrats, according to Quinnipiac.

Republicans

Kim Guadagno- Governor Chris Christie’s Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno remains 2016_lg_officialthe favorite to win the Republican nomination with 23 percent of Republican support, while Stockton’s survey places her party support at 34 percent. However, with support for Governor Chris Christie at an all-time low, Guadagno has made attempts to distance herself from the current Governor. She rejected his support for Trump, and said she’d reverse Christie’s decision to take New Jersey out of a regional compact to combat air pollution. When Governor Christie signed a legislation increasing the gas tax, she opposed the move. In a debate with her opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, she received repeated criticism for working with Christie. Guadagno has pledged to audit the state government in attempt to eliminate waste while addressing property taxes. She’s also stated plans to increase funding for transportation projects as well as repairs for the State House. Guadagno has a significant level of State level executive experience which her competitors lack. While Christie stumped for himself and Donald Trump on the campaign, Guadagno served as the state’s active Governor for more than 500 days. New Jersey law stipulates that anytime the governor is out of state, the Lieutenant will serve as the acting executive.

Jack Ciattarelli— The six-year assemblyman represents residents in Somerset, Hunterdon, Middlesex and Mercer counties. Additionally, Ciattarelli owns and operates Galen Publishing, a medical publishing company. Like Guadagno, Ciattarelli aims to ciattarelli2jpg-2a48ab720635c81ecorrect the price of property taxes in New Jersey, but unlike Guadagno, he wants to alter the way public schools are funded. Ciattarelli has long-chided Christie and continues to tie Guadagno to her old boss. He’s received seven county line endorsements, but his support remains in rural areas with a comparatively small number of registered Republicans. To defeat Guadagno, Ciattarelli will have to chip in to her support base, which consists of a number of Christie supporters.

Virginia- June 13th, 2017

Along with New Jersey, residents of the Old Dominion will cast their vote for a new Governor in November 2017. Five candidates—two Democrats and three Republicans—are vying for their respective party’s nomination on June 13. Ralph Northam, Lieutenant Governor, will square off with former congressman Tom Perriello for the Democratic nomination. According to a recent Washington Post-Schar School Poll, 40 percent of Democrats support Perriello while 38 percent support Northam. The two-point difference is well within the poll’s 10-point margin of error. On the Republican side, former National GOP Chair Ed Gillespie has clear path to the nomination with double digit leads over his opponents, State Senator Frank Wagner and Corey Stewart, chairman of the Prince William County Board of Supervisors. However, even if Gillespie clinches the nomination, his path to the Governor’s seat remains challenging. According to the Washington Post-Schar School Poll, Gillespie significantly trails both Perriello and Northam in a head to head match (Tom Perriello by 50 percent to 37 percent, and Ralph Northam by 49 percent to 38 percent). Trump’s low approval rating may give the Democratic nominee a boost, but the new Governor will most likely inherit and state legislature dominated by the GOP. In any event, Virginia remains a state with strong bi-partisan streak when it comes to the state’s top executive.

Democratic Primary

xirzugki_400x400Ralph Northam- As Lieutenant Governor to Governor Terry McAuliffe, Northam usurped the role of heir apparent until Perriello announced his candidacy in January. Many of dubbed the race as an extension of the Clinton-Sanders fight in Virginian. Northam has received endorsements from state party leaders like McAuliffe, and Democratic Senators Tim Kaine and Mark Warner.  Additionally, every Democrat in the state legislature has backed Northam and every Democratic congressman except one has supported him. While his opponent rides a wave of anti-Trump sentiment, Northam remains a centrist Democrat who admitted supporting George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. However, the former U.S. Army doctor has shuffled further to the left since becoming state senator in a rural district in 2007. As a Virginia legislator and a lieutenant governor, he helped ban smoking in restaurants, worked with victim’s families of the Virginia Tech shooting to curb gun control and helped legalize cannabis oils. As Governor, Northam said he wants to offer tax credits to businesses with paid family leave. He also wants to revise the state’s grocery tax, which he says would cost $67 million. He’s also suggested decriminalizing possession of marijuana. During a debate with Perriello, Northam touted his relationship with Republican legislator saying “I look forward to the relationships I already have in Richmond and continuing that process in the upcoming four years.” As of March 31, Northam had $3.3 million in campaign funds.

Tom Perriello- The former congressman was elected to represent Virginia’s fifth 220px-perriello_official_portrait_28cropped29congressional district in 2008. However, his support for the Affordable Care Act cost him his seat two years later. Following his term, he worked for a progressive nonprofit before heading to the State Department in 2014. After announcing his candidacy in January, he quickly aligned himself with the party’s liberal messaging. Perriello has positioned himself as a policy-oriented progressive who supports free community college, paid family leave and universal pre-kindergarten. He’s also railed against a gas pipeline through Virginia. Meanwhile, Perriello has received outside support from Senator Elizabeth Warren (Mass-D), Senator Bernie Sanders (Vt-I) and several Obama aides. Their support comes in a state where Hillary Clinton won nearly two-thirds of the Democratic electorate against Sanders in 2016. Furthermore, more than half of Perriello’s $2.2 million in campaign funding has come from massive donors outside the state, including contributions from George Soros. While Perriello has championed progressive causes, his voting record on abortion issues and gun rights while in congress has come under fire.

Northam has outspent Perriello on television advertisements in Northern Virginia by $720,000 to $410,000. While 40 percent of the electorate lives in this area, support is split with 36 percent undecided. While Perriello leads Northam among Democratic voters ages 18 to 39 by 20 percent, the Lieutenant Governor leads by 16 points among those ages 65 and older. They run evenly among voters in between, but the older crowd fits the profile of likely voters, giving Northam a qualitative advantage on primary day.

Republican Primary

Ed GillespieEd Gillespie- The former counselor to George W. Bush and Chairman of the Republican National Committee ran against Senator Mark Warner in 2014. Gillespie’s performance surprised many (he lost by less than one percentage point). Prior to his run, he was a lobbyist in Washington, D.C., and provide government affairs service for Tyson Foods. His critics from the right have said he helped push legislation friendly to illegal immigrants. As part of his platform, Gillespie aims to cut income taxes by 10 percent over three years, improve government efficiency and ethics oversight, ban personal use of campaign funds, while strengthening second amendment rights and abortion restrictions. According to a May poll by Washington Post-Schar School, Gillespie has strong support among all registered Republicans. With $3.3 million in campaign funding, the former RNC chair has 38 percent support while a quarter remain undecided.

2012 Official Portrait Chairman StewartCorey Stewart- Known more for his pro-Confederate antics rather than his policy chops, the chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors promises to crack down on illegal immigration while protecting Virginia’s Confederate symbols. As Chair of President Trump’s Campaign in Virginia, Stewart was fired for staging a protest at the State’s GOP headquarters. The anti-establishment Stewart wants to phase out the income tax, outlaw abortion without exception and slash state spending. The firebrand Stewart has attacked Gillespie repeatedly for receiving more than $1 million to lobby for Tyson Foods when allegations of smuggling illegal immigrants to arose. With slightly more than $400,000 in campaign funding, Stewart has 18 percent support among Virginia Republicans.

Jack Wagner – Originally elected to the Virginia House in 1992, then to the State Senate in 2000, Wagner has a significant level of experience in Virginia politics. As a Virginia Beach resident representing the 7th district, he sits on the Commerce and Labor, General Laws and Technology, Rehabilitation and Social Services, and Transportation committees. While Stewart and Gillespie want to cut state spending, Wagner maintains the budget is lean enough—citing a $1.2 billion shortfall in 2016. Wagner wants to increase the gasoline tax to subsidize infrastructure projects. He also wants to create accredited vocational programs in high schools that will support technical training for new jobs. Similar to his opponents, he opposes abortion in all instances except in the case of rape or if the mother’s life is endangered. With $178,000 in campaign funds, Wagner has 15 percent support among registered Republican voters.

Capitol Commentary: The Month Ahead in Washington, DC

(Posted 5/30/17)

With Congress in recess this week, we look ahead to June.

Next month promises to push to the forefront tensions between military spending and deficit cutting, between defense priorities and domestic needs, and between congressional leaders and the Trump White House. Hard choices will be negotiated as the House and Senate Armed Services committees start writing the 2018 defense authorization bills. Senate Armed Services Chair John McCain wants to undo the military spending caps that have constrained the Pentagon since enactment in 2011 of the Budget Control Act. The Arizona Republican has warned that he is willing to force a floor vote on the caps during consideration of any bill — any bill at all — that makes it to the Senate floor. McCain and House Armed Services Chair Mac Thornberry both wanted the administration to ask for more fiscal 2018 military spending than made it into the budget request. They want $640 billion, excluding war funds. The Trump administration’s request came in at $603 billion. So far, the two chairs say they have not made a final decision on whether to write their authorization bills at the level they prefer. House subcommittees are planning to debate portions of the fiscal 2018 authorization the week of June 19, with the marathon full-committee markup tentatively planned for the following week. Senators are preparing to start marking up their version of the bill the week of June 26.

The Senate has schedule a June 6 vote on the nomination of Courtney Elwood to become general counsel of the Central Intelligence Agency, and Senate Energy and Natural Resources Chair Lisa Murkowski has said she wants an early June committee vote on two Federal Energy Regulatory Commission picks and deputy secretary nominees at the Energy and Interior departments.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said he plans to bring to the floor after the recess S. 1094, legislation that would empower Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin to fire employees as he tries to improve medical care of veterans and reduce wait times for VA hospital admissions.

Another bill that could be in line for Senate floor action would let the administration impose more economic sanctions against Iran, as well as companies and individuals that assist Tehran in ballistic missile tests or fomenting terrorism in the region. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved the bill, S. 722, on May 25.

The House plans to take up legislation to overhaul the Dodd-Frank financial regulation law. After a behind-the-scenes fight, H.R. 10 will go to the floor with a managers’ amendment that would keep in place the law’s cap on “swipe fees” that go to banks when customers use debit cards to buy merchandise or a meal. Score that as a victory for retailers, as Elizabeth Dexheimer explains: Wal-Mart Beats JPMorgan Again as GOP Keeps Cap on Swipe Fees.

Look for committees in both chambers to begin drafting legislation to renew the Federal Aviation Administration’s power to collect ticket and fuel taxes to fund its operations. House Transportation and Infrastructure Chair Bill Shuster favors privatizing the FAA-run air traffic control system — a position that has little support in the Senate. Highway Subcommittee Chair Sam Graves of Missouri said there could be a markup as early as June.

Before the Senate can debate a Republican-crafted replacement for the previous administration’s health-care law, the leaders and enough of the rank-and-file must agree on what the main pillars of their plan should be, and that is still a work in progress. The No. 2 Republican leader, John Cornyn, told reporters May 25 that the “general tone” of discussions in their 13-member working group is encouraging because of “a willingness of people to make small concessions to build consensus.”

“With 50 senators needing to agree on this bill, everybody is in a strong position so we cannot roll anybody, so we are going to have to continue to talk about that issue,” he told reporters.

South Carolina Republican Tim Scott predicted that senators will not leave for the August recess “without having a vote on health care.” After the June work period, there are three more weeks of session before the August break.’

John Zang Contributed to this Report

DMGS Harrisburg Executive Director Named in Pennsylvania Power 100 List

Patty Mackavage, Harrisburg executive director with Duane Morris Government Strategies, was recently recognized by City & State PA as one of the 100 mostIMG_1230 politically influential Pennsylvanians in 2017. City & State PA, a media outlet covering Keystone Politics at the state and local level, credited Patty’s legislative work with three different governors, her diverse clientele and her knowledge of various issues impacting Pennsylvanians. Ranked at No. 60, Patty’s experience includes secretary and deputy secretary for legislative affairs in the administrations of both Governor Mark Schweiker and Governor Ed Rendell, as well as serving as legislative director for the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue during Governor Tom Ridge’s administration. With an expertise in the state budget process, and public finance/economic development, Patty now represents clients’ issues before the state legislature and local governments throughout Pennsylvania.

The 2017 City & State PA Power 100 list includes state and local officials, as well lobbyists, CEO’s, philanthropists, labor leaders and a number of other influential leaders in Pennsylvania. For a complete list of City & State PA’s Power 100, please visit City & State PA.

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Patty Mackavage with Ron Boston (L) and Stacy Gromlich (R) from the DMGS Harrisburg Team

 

Legislative Insight: Federal and State Gas Taxes

By Danny Restivo (posted 5/24/17)

Shortly after President Donald Trump entered the White House, he pledged a large investment in America’s infrastructure during a nationally televised address to Congress.

“To launch our national rebuilding, I will be asking the Congress to approve legislation that produces a $1 trillion investment in the infrastructure of the United States—financed through both public and private capital—creating millions of new jobs,” the President said during his February speech.

The American Society for Civil Engineers gave American infrastructure a D+ in its 2017 report card.Deteriorating infrastructure is impeding our ability to compete in the thriving global economy, and improvements are necessary to ensure our country is built for the future,” the report said. “While we have made some progress, reversing the trajectory after decades of underinvestment in our infrastructure requires transformative action from Congress, states, infrastructure owners, and the American people.”

The report also said current road conditions cost the country $160 billion in time and money every year, while a report from the Federal Highway Administration says the country’s transit system has a $90 billion backlog on repairs. Democratic lawmakers have long-supported federal dollars to help improve America’s roads, bridges, dams, airports and tunnels. Trump’s plan offers a rare opportunity for bi-partisan support in an increasingly fractured political environment.

While a final proposal has yet to be agreed upon, Trump has called for a public-private partnership, but that seems more viable in urban areas where companies can recoup money by levying tolls. In rural areas, where less people live, projects may not entice enough investment because of revenue concerns.

In early May, President Donald Trump signaled that he’s open to raising the federal gas tax to help subsidize infrastructure improvements.

“It’s something I would certainly consider,” the President said to Bloomberg News in an interview. His statement underscores an issue that’s plagued politicians for years. The last time Congress increased a nationwide gas tax was in 1993, when lawmakers approved a 19.3 cent per gallon tax on gasoline, and a 24.3 cent per gallon tax on diesel fuel. However, that tax has not adjusted for inflation, and the Highway Trust Fund has not kept pace. Since 2008, the federal government has injected $143 billion in the fund, while the tax has generated roughly $34 billion a year. However, the federal government usually spends $50 billion per year on transportation projects, leaving a $16 billion annual shortfall.

The Congressional Budget Office said the fund will become insolvent by 2021 without additional funding. According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, increasing the federal tax to 35 cents per gallon will create an additional $473.6 billion over a period of 10 years.

The Chamber of Commerce, AAA auto club and the American Trucking Association support a new gasoline tax. After the 2014 mid-term elections, the group sent a joint letter to the 114th Congress that lends support for a bill that increases the gas tax. 

“While no one wants to pay more, we urge you to support an increase to the federal fuels user fee, provided the funds are used to ease congestion and improve safety, because it is the most cost efficient and straightforward way to provide a steady revenue stream to the Highway Trust Fund.”

However, critics believe a gas tax will hurt working families by leveling fees on middle class commuters, many of whom supported Trump. Low gas prices may provide cover for a tax increase, but a sharp spike in gas prices could change consumer sentiments. In an interview with CNBC, Chevron CEO John Watson, pushed back against a tax on gas.

“I think a good first step would be to evaluate where existing taxes are going,” he said. “In other words, we have road taxes today. How are they being used? Are they being put to good use in rebuilding our infrastructure?”

In light of the debate, several states have increased their respective gas tax to shore up roads, bridges, tunnels and other state-operated transportation systems.Since 2015, sixteen states and the District of Columbia have enacted legislation to increase taxes on gas that help support infrastructure programs. According to American Road and Transportation Builders Association, voters approved 269 of the 361 transportation funding measures that appeared on township, city, county or state ballots in 2016. Many of these initiatives were approved in Democratic and Republican-dominated regions of the country. Furthermore, Louisiana, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Oregon have transportation funding measures pending in their respective legislatures.

Gas Tax Map

States Enacting Gas Taxes in 2017

California

The State Senate approved a 10 cent per gallon tax hike in April as part transportation bill estimated to raise $5.2 billion a year to repair state roads and highways. The legislation, which was backed by Governor Jerry Brown, increases the per gallon tax rate from 18 cents to 30 cents. The law also mandates $100 annual fee for electric cars, as well as annual fees ranging from $25 for cars valued at or under $5,000, to $175 for a car worth $60,000 or more. About $34 billion of the first $52 billion would go to repairing roads, bridges, highways and culverts, with most of the money split 50-50 between state and local projects.

Michigan

Michigan drivers saw a 7 cent tax increase in fuel prices at the beginning of the year, increasing a 19 cent per gallon tax to 26.3 cents per gallon, while diesel fuel will increase 11.3 cents from 15 to 26.3 cents per gallon as well. Lawmakers also approved a 20 percent increase in vehicle registration fees, while gas-electric hybrid and electric vehicles will experience an added $47 and $135, respectively. The hike is the first gas tax increase in 20 years, and aims to fund crumbling bridges and roads with an additional $2.3 billion over the next four years. The plan allocates 61 percent of the funding to counties, cities and villages, while the rest goes to state projects.

 

 

Indiana

Governor Eric Holcomb signed a $1.2 billion highway improvement plan in April which increases the Hoosier gas tax from 18 cents to 28 cents per gallon in July. Furthermore, registration and licensing fees will increase by $15. There’s also a $50 fee on hybrids and a $150 fee on electric cars. In addition, Holcomb intends to draft a plan that adds tolls for certain interstate projects by the end of 2018.

Montana

The Montana house assembly approved a bill this year that will levy a 6 cent per gallon gas tax increase phased-in over 6 years. More than four percent will take effect on July 1, while the remainder is implemented in 0.5 cent increments between 2019 and 2022. The Montana tax is expected to generate $28 million in 2018, and more in future years to help repair state roads and bridges, as well as the construction of new ones.

South Carolina

On May 10 the South Carolina House and Senate overrode a veto from Governor Henry McMaster to approve an infrastructure bill that increases the state’s gas tax. The legislation will enact a 12 cent per gallon increase phased in over six years, with a two cent increase occurring in July. The tax will eventually reach 28.75 cents per gallon while generating $600 million for infrastructure projects throughout the state.

Tennessee

The House and Senate approved a bill sponsored by Governor Bill Haslam, which would generate $350 million for the state’s highway fund, and boost road revenues for cities and counties. The gas tax will rise by 6 cents per gallon and the diesel tax by 10 cents on July 1. The bill also has several fee increases, including a $5 car registration increase and a $100 fee on electric car users

States Enacting Gas Taxes in 2016

New Jersey

In October 2016, Governor Chris Christie signed a bill that increased the gasoline tax to 23 cents per gallon. The bill marked the first tax hike of Christie’s tenure, and the first tax increase on gas since 1988. The law takes the second lowest gas tax rate from 14.5 cents per gallon, to 37.5 cents, the seventh highest. The law levies diesel users with a 15.9 cent per gallon tax increase, totaling more than 27 cents per gallon.

The bill will generate $1.23 billion annually to help finance an eight year, $16 billion transportation program. The legislation comes after the state’s Transportation Trust Fund, which helps pay for Garden State roads, bridges and railways, had no money to pay for new projects over the summer.

After Christie signed the bill in October, voters approved a November referendum to amend the state’s constitution to allocate the tax revenue to transportation projects. The law prevents lawmakers from reallocating the money to different projects.

States Enacting Gas Taxes in 2015

Georgia

The Georgia Legislature enacted the Transportation Act of 2015, increasing the excise gas tax by 7.5 cents per gallon, along with a four percent state sales tax, to 26 cents per gallon. These rates will then adjust to Consumer Price Index Every year. The money accrued from the tax will allocate to future state transportation projects. Additionally, the state will also collect a $5 per night hotel fee, as well as fees for heavy trucks and a $200 registration fee for electric cars. The law also eliminates a $5,000 tax credit for anyone who purchases an electric car. House Bill 170 also allows counties and municipalities to levy a 1 percent use tax on all motor fuels. The bill aims to collect $900 million a year to help fund transportation projects throughout the Peach State.

Idaho

Idaho’s gas tax increased 7 cents after state lawmakers approved a funding bill in April 2015 to help raise money for road repairs. The house bill increased the gas tax from 25 to 32 cents, to help raise more than $95 million a year. The accrued revenue is then split between local governments and state highway departments (60/40). Idaho also stipulates a $145 registration fee for an electric car, and a $75 fee for hybrid vehicles. However, a house bill introduced in 2017 will eliminate those fees if approved by the Governor.

Iowa

Governor Terry Branstad signed a bill in February 2015, which increased Iowa’s gas tax from 20 cents to 30 cents per gallon. The bipartisan initiative provides $215 million in annual funds for city, county and state roads. The gas tax increase received support from the Iowa Farm Bureau, the Chamber of Commerce, the trucking Industry, the Iowa State Association of Counties and the Iowa County Engineers Association. The gas tax legislation was the first fuel tax increase since 1989.

Kentucky

Kentucky lawmakers approved legislation pegging the gas tax to the average wholesale price of gas over a three-month span. However, a $1.46 drop in gas prices in 2015 created a significant shortfall in the Commonwealth’s transportation budget. As a result, the lower gas taxes helped create a $125 million gap for transportation projects in local municipalities and townships, as well as state highways. To ensure a steady stream of revenue, lawmakers approved a 26-cent minimum for the gas tax rate.

 

 

Nebraska

State legislators overrode a veto from the Governor to increase the state’s gas tax by cents per gallon, creating roughly $75 million a year in additional funding for transportation projects. The law says the gas rate will increase 1.5 cents every year for the next four years, through 2019. The State’s Transportation Innovation Act is estimated to raise $400 million. Nebraska’s gas tax has three components. This legislation will impact the fixed tax, which is set by state law at 12.3 cents per gallon in 2017. Meanwhile, the wholesale tax is pegged at the wholesale price and the variable tax adjusts every six months to meet the funding demands of previously approved state roads projects. The gas tax currently sits at 27.3 cents per gallon.

North Carolina

Governor Pat McCrory signed a bill reducing the fuel tax from 37.5 cents per gallon to 34 cents per gallon by 2016. In January 2017, the gas tax began using a formula that accounts for population, energy prices and the consumer price index to help adjust the rate. The reformed gas tax formula takes population and energy prices into account when calculating future gas tax increases in the years ahead. The first of those increased the rate to 34.3 cents per gallon.

South Dakota

Governor Dennis Daugaard signed legislation that increased the gas tax from 22 cents per gallon to 28 cents. The legislation also increases the excise tax on vehicle registration from three to four percent and increases license plate fees for noncommercial vehicles by 20 percent. The fuel tax hike will generate an estimated $40.5 million annually, while the excise tax increase will produce an additional $27 million to $30 million. Most of the revenue generated is allocated to state roads and local bridges. The new bill allows municipalities to levy their own taxes to repair roads in their jurisdiction.

Utah

State lawmakers approved legislation to increase the state’s gas tax by 5 cents per gallon from 24.5 cents. The legislation levies a 12 percent wholesale tax on fuel and pegs future increases to a formula that considers fuel prices and inflation. In March 2017, the state house voted to pass fuel tax increases of .6 cents per gallon beginning in 2019 and 1.2 cents a gallon in 2020, essentially reworking the formula established two years prior.

Washington

The Governor signed a 16-year transportation revenue package in August 2015, which increases the state’s gas tax to 44.5 cents per gallon. The legislation is part of the state’s $16 billion transportation project aimed at improving highways and roads, as well as non-highway projects like walkways, bike paths and transit systems. The two-part tax hike increased rates by an additional 4.9 cents a gallon, putting the total tax at 49.4 cents.