Tennessee Gubernatorial Primary Recap

Republican Bill Lee and Democrat Karl Dean won their respective party nominations for governor Thursday night and will face off in November’s general election.

Lee, a Nashville-area businessman, was a dark horse candidate when the first polls emerged earlier this year. However, with nearly 37 percent of the vote, he defeated fellow businessman Randy Boyd and Rep. Diane Black, a central Tennessee congresswoman who had received endorsements from Vice President Mike Pence and the National Rifle Association. Meanwhile, Boyd had support from former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and every major Republican mayor in the state. While Lee lacked the high profile endorsements, he embarked on a statewide campaign that saw him visit 95 counties in 95 days where he spoke at 100 town halls.

On the Democratic side, Dean, the former mayor of Nashville, took more than 75 percent of the party vote, defeating Tennessee House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh, who had nearly 20 percent. Dean out-raised Fitzhugh 15-to-1 and spent four times as much throughout the race.

In the primary for U.S. Senate, former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen and Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn will square off for the open seat vacated by Republican Bob Corker. Both Blackburn and Bredesen easily clinched their party’s nomination Thursday night.

Tennessee, which went heavily for Donald Trump in 2016, has not had more than two consecutive terms of one party’s control of the governorship since Republican Winfield Dunn broke a Democratic streak that had lasted from 1923 until 1971.

The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections have both given this race a “Likely Republican” rating. Meanwhile, both publications have categorized the senate race as “Lean Republican.”

 

2018 Illinois Gubernatorial Primary Preview

Primary: March 20, 2018

General Elections: November 6, 2018

The 2018 Illinois gubernatorial contest may become the most expensive governor’s race in American history. A multimillionaire incumbent and multibillionaire challenger have already flooded the Land of Lincoln with $180 million in campaign cash ahead of the primary. With eight months left until the general election, the current rate of spending will likely break the record before November (the record was set in 2010, when Democrat Jerry Brown defeated Republican Meg Whitman after they raised a combined $280 million to run for Governor of California).

Meanwhile, Illinois has serious budget issues, with nearly $9 billion in past due bills.

GovRauner
Governor Bruce Rauner

Republican Governor Bruce Rauner will seek re-election under dismal circumstances. He’s among the most unpopular governors in America, with a 31-percent approval rating, according to a February Morning Consult poll. Rauner defeated Democrat Governor Pat Quinn in 2014, after riding a business-friendly message focused on streamlining government. Rauner, a former private equity manager worth several hundred million dollars, has delivered on few campaign promises since then. He’s also antagonized the state’s financial woes by vetoing legislation from the Democratic-controlled state house. In 2015, he tried to close a $1.5 billion budget gap by cutting a number of government programs, which angered many Democrats. Currently, the Illinois credit rating remains one level above junk.

Fortunately for Rauner, his missteps might not cost the him office. According to a February poll from the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University, Rauner leads State Representative Jeanne Ives, 51-31 percent. With a sample of 259 Republican voters, more than 18 percent remained undecided.

Illinois_Jeanne_ives
State Representative Jeanne Ives

Ives, a three-term assemblywoman from the western Chicago suburbs, has crafted a campaign targeting social conservatives in down state Illinois. She’s criticized Rauner for failing to deliver on spending cuts or holding government agencies accountable. In a controversial television advertisement, a pro-Ives group attacked Rauner on policies ranging from transgender bathrooms to sanctuary cities. The Republican Party has increased its presence in rural Illinois in recent years, which could benefit Ives. However, Rauner has far outspent Ives, raising more than $103 million, with more than half coming from his own fortune. Conversely, Ives has only reached $3.8 million, placing her in an uphill battle.

Illinois_JB Pritzker
J.B. Pritzker

The top Democratic nominee, J.B. Pritzker, is a multi-billionaire scion from a powerful Chicago family.  Pritzker has been a major figure in Democratic fundraising circles, while his older sister, Penny Pritzker, served as President Barack Obama’s Commerce Secretary during his second-term. With a personal wealth of $3.5 billion, Pritzker has used more than $63 million of his own money for the campaign. Yet his finances have become a point of contention: A March news story highlighted his offshore bank accounts, he has not yet released his tax returns, and he was caught on an FBI wiretap in 2008 discussing campaign funding and available statewide offices with former Illinois Governor Rob Blagojevich. Blagojevich, was sentenced to 14 years in jail on federal corruption charges after he tried to sell President Barack Obama’s vacant senate seat in 2008.

Pritzker also maintains a close relationship with Michael Madigan, Illinois House Speaker and Chairman of the State Democratic Party. Madigan is the longest-serving leader in any federal or state legislative body in U.S. history. He’s among the most powerful politicians in Illinois, known for steamrolling opponents and wielding heavy influence over legislation. His shadow looms large in this primary, even though allegations connecting him to impropriety have emerged.

Illinois_Daniel Biss
State Senator Daniel Bliss

In the SIU poll, which sampled 472 voters, Pritzker has 31 percent support among Democrats, with nearly a quarter undecided. Trailing behind the billionaire is State Senator Daniel Biss of Evanston, a progressive candidate who wants to collect tax money from financial transactions on the Board of Trade and Mercantile Exchange. He once ran a Super PAC for Madigan, whose funding apparatus gave Biss more than $220,000 to help him win in 2010. However, his liberal bona fides have come under fire after he cosponsored a bill limiting the growth of retirement annuities for state employee pensions. The Illinois State Supreme Court struck down the legislation on constitutional grounds in 2015. Biss said he regrets the co-sponsorship but he still wants to reduce debts in the state retirement system. With roughly $5 million in campaign funding, he falls well short of Pritzker’s resources.

With 17 percent in the SIU poll, Chris Kennedy has emerged as a dark horse contender. As the son of Robert F. Kennedy, and the nephew of President John F. Kennedy, Chris has made gun control and mental health a centerpiece of his candidacy. He also wants to reform the state property tax system, calling it “a racket” in public. He served as Chairman of the Board of Trustees for the University of Illinois from 2012 to 2015. He was President of Merchandise Mart Properties, a commercial management firm based in Chicago.

Three other candidates have received single digit polling numbers: Bob Diabler, a Madison County school superintendent located west of St. Louis; Tio Hardiman, director of the anti-violence group Cease Fire Illinois; and Dr. Robert Marshall, a radiologist and Vietnam veteran who wants to divide Illinois into three separate states—Chicago, Chicago suburbs and rest of the state.

The Cook Political Report has categorized the general election as a toss-up, while Inside Elections has it tilting towards Democrats.

 

 

Virginia Primary Recap

By Danny Restivo (Posted 6/14/17)

Former Republican Party Chairman Ed Gillespie and Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam clinched their respective party’s nominations for Virginia’s 2017 gubernatorial race:

  • Northam defeated his challenger from the left, former Congressman Tom Perriello with 57 percent of the vote, while Perriello grabbed 44 percent (303,846 to 239,505).
  • Gillespie narrowly defeated Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart. He had 43.7 percent compared to Stewart’s 42.5 percent, while state Senator Jack Wagner came in a distant third with just under 14 percent.

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Stewart did not concede defeat on election night. His performance shocked many pollsters who predicted a 20-point Gillespie victory. However, a low turnout among Republican voters—540,000 Democrats compared to 360,000 Republican—and a solid turnout among a galvanized base gave Stewart a much-needed boost.

In the Lieutenant governor’s race:

  • Former assistant U.S. Attorney Justin Fairfax defeated Gene Rossi, a retired federal prosecutor and Susan Platt, a former Democratic operative and lobbyist to win the Democratic nomination. Fairfax grabbed nearly 58 percent of the vote while Platt and Rossi each had 30 and 12 percent, respectively.
  • On the Republican side, State Senator Jill Vogel earned 43 percent of Virginia GOP voters, while her closest competition, State Senator Bryan Reeves, garnered 40 percent.

In Virginia, the Lieutenant governor is a part-time position that includes presides over the state senate and breaking tied votes.

General Election- Preview

The 2017 Virginia general election will be held on November 7 and following this very contested primary, Democrats appear to be starting out with the advantage. A Northam-vs.-Gillespie general election may look surprisingly similar to other states. Early analysis of turnout suggests that the Virginia primary looked similar to the NJ primary held last week; Democrats had turnout and enthusiasm on their side with approximately 540,000 votes to the GOP’s 366,000 votes.

Analysts are not on yet betting on Gillespie and are convinced that Virginia may no longer be a “purple” state. Republicans have gone 1-9 in major VA statewide races since 2004, and if turnout in this primary shows anything, the Democrats may out perform once again. It is also worth noting that while Gillespie eked out a a win, his win was not without a major fight between the establishment and outsider wings of the republican party.  With five months to go until the general election, both Gillespie and Northam have their work cut out for them in what will no doubt be an indicator of things to come in 2018.

For a complete breakdown of the Virginia gubernatorial candidates, please read our Primary Preview published on June 2.

Democratic Primary- Recap

Ralph Northam– As Lieutenant Governor to Governor Terry McAuliffe, Northam usurped the role of heir apparent until Perriello announced his candidacy in January. Many of dubbed the race as an extension of the Clinton-Sanders fight in Virginian. Northam has received endorsements from state party leaders like McAuliffe, and Democratic Senators Tim Kaine and Mark Warner.  Additionally, every Democrat in the state legislature has backed Northam and every Democratic congressman except one has supported him. While his opponent rides a wave of anti-Trump sentiment, Northam remains a centrist Democrat who admitted supporting George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. However, the former U.S. Army doctor has shuffled further to the left since becoming state senator in a rural district in 2007. As a Virginia legislator and a lieutenant governor, he helped ban smoking in restaurants, worked with victim’s families of the Virginia Tech shooting to curb gun control and helped legalize cannabis oils. As Governor, Northam said he wants to offer tax credits to businesses with paid family leave. He also wants to revise the state’s grocery tax, which he says would cost $67 million. He’s also suggested decriminalizing possession of marijuana. During a debate with Perriello, Northam touted his relationship with Republican legislator saying “I look forward to the relationships I already have in Richmond and continuing that process in the upcoming four years.” As of March 31, Northam had $3.3 million in campaign funds.

Tom Perriello- The former congressman was elected to represent Virginia’s fifth congressional district in 2008. However, his support for the Affordable Care Act cost him his seat two years later. Following his term, he worked for a progressive nonprofit before heading to the State Department in 2014. After announcing his candidacy in January, he quickly aligned himself with the party’s liberal messaging. Perriello has positioned himself as a policy-oriented progressive who supports free community college, paid family leave and universal pre-kindergarten. He’s also railed against a gas pipeline through Virginia. Meanwhile, Perriello has received outside support from Senator Elizabeth Warren (Mass-D), Senator Bernie Sanders (Vt-I) and several Obama aides. Their support comes in a state where Hillary Clinton won nearly two-thirds of the Democratic electorate against Sanders in 2016. Furthermore, more than half of Perriello’s $2.2 million in campaign funding has come from massive donors outside the state, including contributions from George Soros. While Perriello has championed progressive causes, his voting record on abortion issues and gun rights while in congress has come under fire.

Republican Primary- Recap

Ed Gillespie– The former counselor to George W. Bush and Chairman of the Republican National Committee ran against Senator Mark Warner in 2014. Gillespie’s performance surprised many (he lost by less than one percentage point). Prior to his run, he was a lobbyist in Washington, D.C., and provide government affairs service for Tyson Foods. His critics from the right have said he helped push legislation friendly to illegal immigrants. As part of his platform, Gillespie aims to cut income taxes by 10 percent over three years, improve government efficiency and ethics oversight, ban personal use of campaign funds, while strengthening second amendment rights and abortion restrictions. According to a May poll by Washington Post-Schar School, Gillespie has strong support among all registered Republicans. With $3.3 million in campaign funding, the former RNC chair has 38 percent support while a quarter remain undecided.

Corey Stewart- Known more for his pro-Confederate antics rather than his policy chops, the chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors promises to crack down on illegal immigration while protecting Virginia’s Confederate symbols. As Chair of President Trump’s Campaign in Virginia, Stewart was fired for staging a protest at the State’s GOP headquarters. The anti-establishment Stewart wants to phase out the income tax, outlaw abortion without exception and slash state spending. The firebrand Stewart has attacked Gillespie repeatedly for receiving more than $1 million to lobby for Tyson Foods when allegations of smuggling illegal immigrants to arose. With slightly more than $400,000 in campaign funding, Stewart has 18 percent support among Virginia Republicans.

Jack Wagner- Originally elected to the Virginia House in 1992, then to the State Senate in 2000, Wagner has a significant level of experience in Virginia politics. As a Virginia Beach resident representing the 7th district, he sits on the Commerce and Labor, General Laws and Technology, Rehabilitation and Social Services, and Transportation committees. While Stewart and Gillespie want to cut state spending, Wagner maintains the budget is lean enough—citing a $1.2 billion shortfall in 2016. Wagner wants to increase the gasoline tax to subsidize infrastructure projects. He also wants to create accredited vocational programs in high schools that will support technical training for new jobs. Similar to his opponents, he opposes abortion in all instances except in the case of rape or if the mother’s life is endangered. With $178,000 in campaign funds, Wagner has 15 percent support among registered Republican voters.